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In a holiday-shortened trading week, mortgage markets tanked last week, casting doubt on whether the bond market’s 7-month bull run will continue. Fears of inflation caused conforming mortgage rates to rise in Arizona.

Last week marked the first sizable mortgage rate increase over the course of 7 days since April.

The biggest reason why rates rose last week was because of concerns that the Federal Reserve’s latest round of stimulus will devalue the U.S. dollar.

The Fed pledged an additional $600 billion to the bond markets two weeks ago and, to meet this obligation, the group will have to, quite literally, print new money.

It’s Supply and Demand. With more dollars in circulation, every existing dollar is worth less.

It’s also inflationary.

As the Fed’s pledge ties back to mortgage rates, remember that mortgage bondholders are paid in U.S. dollars. So, if those dollars are expected to be worth less in the future, we would expect mortgage bond demand to fall. And that’s exactly what happened last week — investors rarely clamor for assets whose value drops over time.

The falling demand dropped down prices, and pushed up yields. Mortgage rates spiked.

This week, the trend could continue. There’s a lot of inflation-signaling data on tap:

• Monday : Retail Sales
• Tuesday : Producer Price Index; Consumer Confidence; Housing Market Index
• Wednesday : Consumer Price Index; Housing Starts
• Thursday : Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Analysts are calling for lukewarm data this week; none of the releases is expected to show strong growth. If the analysts are wrong, look for rates to rise again.

Momentum is moving away from rate shoppers. If you’ve yet to lock in a rate, consider doing it now.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, The Street Economist

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Follow The Street Economist at http://www.facebook.com/TheStreetEconomist

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jeffunderwood

Also visit TheUglyTruthAboutMoney to follow The Street Economist

It’s getting tougher to get approved for a mortgage. Still.

In its quarterly survey of senior loan officers around the country, the Federal Reserve asked whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines” have tightened in the prior 3 months.

A “prime” borrower typically carries a well-documented credit history with high credit scores, has a low debt-to-income ratio, and uses a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage.

For the period July-September 2010, 52 of 54 responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them “basically unchanged”.

Just 4% of banks loosened their lending standards.

If you’ve applied for a home loan lately — for either purchase or refinance — you’ve likely experienced the effects of the last 4 years. Because of delinquencies and defaults, today’s mortgage underwriters are forced to scrutinize income, assets and credit scores, among other facets of an home loan application.

Mortgage applicants in Gilbert have higher hurdles to clear:

• Minimum credit scores are higher versus last year
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger versus last year
• Debt-to-Income ratios must be lower versus last year

In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in history, qualification standards are not.  Minimum eligibility requirements are tougher, and appear to be toughening still.

If you’re among the many people wondering if now is the right time to join the Refinance Boom, or to buy a home, consider that, while mortgage rates may fall further, eligibility standards may not.

Low mortgage rates don’t matter if you can’t qualify for them.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, The Street Economist

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Follow The Street Economist at http://www.facebook.com/TheStreetEconomist

Also visit TheUglyTruthAboutMoney to follow The Street Economist

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since September’s meeting, the pace of economic and job growth “continues to be slow”.  Housing starts are “depressed”, income growth is “modest” and commercial real estate investment is “weak”.

With respect to its prior economic stimuli, the Fed deemed the recovery “disappointingly slow”, while, at the same time, noting that growth will come.

The Fed also noted that inflation is running lower that what’s optimal, hinting at the potential for deflation.

Lastly, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, and also announced a new, $600 billion support package for the bond market. In most instances, a move like this would drive mortgage rates lower, but the Fed’s stimulus had been widely telegraphed, and $600 billion isn’t too far from the initial package estimates.

Mortgage market reaction has been muted thus far. Mortgage rates in Phoenix are unchanged post-FOMC, but looked poised to worsen.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is December 14, 2010. It’s the last scheduled meeting of the year.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, The Street Economist

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Follow The Street Economist at http://www.facebook.com/TheStreetEconomist

Also visit TheUglyTruthAboutMoney to follow The Street Economist

The Federal Reserve ends a scheduled, 2-day meeting today. It’s the seventh of 8 scheduled Fed meetings in 2010, and the eighth overall this year.

The Fed held an unscheduled meeting May 9, 2010.

When today’s meeting adjourns, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will publish a formal statement within which the Fed is expected to announce “no change” to the Fed Funds Rate. But that doesn’t mean that mortgage rates won’t change.

To the contrary, expect mortgage rates to move by a lot this afternoon. Here’s why.

The Fed’s mission is to preserve stability within banking and the economy and, to achieve that goal, the Fed was bequeathed a number of powers by the U.S. government.

The most well-known of those powers is to right to set the Fed Funds Rate, the rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight.

Since December 2008, the benchmark Fed Funds Rate has been held in a range of 0.000-0.250 percent, the lowest possible range without going negative.

Now, when the Fed Funds Rate is low, it’s meant to loosen credit; to push the economy forward. And, by all accounts, the near-zero Fed Funds Rate is working. The recession ended and the economy is recovering.

However, the Fed has other stimulus-providing tools at its disposal and Wall Street expects the group to use them.  This is where mortgage rates come into play.

Investors think the Fed will announce a new stimulus in its press release this afternoon and, dependent on the size of package, mortgage rates in Arizona will either rise, or fall.

• If the package is worth more than $500 billion, rates are expected to fall
• If the package is worth less than $250 billion, rates are expected to rise

If the stimulus is somewhere in between, rates should idle.

Predicting mortgage rates is an inexact science, and guessing the Fed even moreso. Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage rate right now, the prudent move is to lock it up prior to today’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment because, after to 2:15 PM ET, we can count on the Fed Funds Rate staying flat, but the same can’t be said for mortgage rates.

Call your loan officer this morning.

Again, no one knows what will happen to rates for sure.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, The Street Economist

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Follow The Street Economist at http://www.facebook.com/TheStreetEconomist

Also visit TheUglyTruthAboutMoney to follow The Street Economist

Mortgage markets improved last week on mixed messages about the economy, and a growing belief that the government will move to stimulate the economy.

Conforming mortgage rates in Arizona eased lower.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage market survey, average mortgage rates nationwide fell to new all-time lows last week. On the other side of that point, however, is that the accompanying “points” for today’s low rates have climbed to their highest levels of 2010.

In other words, mortgage rates are down, but closing costs are up.

There were two main stories driving mortgage rates last week. The first was the Federal Reserve.

Although nothing has been said specifically, markets are speculating that the government will add new layers of market support to spark the economy.

The prevailing thought is that — if there’s intervention — the Fed will buy treasuries and mortgage bonds, driving up prices and pushing down yields. Rates dropped last week in anticipation of such a move.

The second factor in falling mortgage rates was Friday’s jobs report.

Economists expected the economy to shed 5,000 jobs in September. Instead, it lost 95,000, anchored by the elimination of temporary census workers and job losses in local governments. The private sector didn’t fare so poorly, adding sixty-four thousand jobs. However, that, too, fell short of expectations.

The results contributed to a mortgage market rally already in-process.

This week, there’s a number of releases that should keep mortgage rates on the move — up and down — including Fed Minutes (Tuesday), Producer Price Index (Thursday), and Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and a confidence survey (Friday).

Mortgage rates are low and may not stay that way. If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or wondering whether now is the time to lock, talk to you loan officer. Rates are expected be volatile this week.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, The Street Economist

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Follow The Street Economist at http://www.facebook.com/TheStreetEconomist

Today, in its 7th meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

The Fed Funds Rate remains at a historical low, within a Fed’s target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that the pace of economic recovery “has slowed” in recent months. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained by high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

For the second straight month, the Federal Reserve showed less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. However, the Fed still expects growth to be “modest in the near-term”.

This outlook is consistent with recent research showing that the recession is over, and that growth has resumed — albeit at a slower pace than what was originally expected.

The Fed also highlighted strengths in the economy:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in Arizona are thus far unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day affair scheduled for November 2-3, 2010.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, “The Street Economist”

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its 6th scheduled meeting of the year today, and 7th overall.

Upon adjournment, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce “no change” to the Fed Funds Rate.

Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.  It’s been at this same level since December 2008.

Note that the Feds Funds Rate is not “a mortgage rate” — nor is it a a consumer rate of any kind. The Fed Funds Rate is a rate that defines the cost of an overnight loan between banks. And, although the Fed Funds Rate has little direct consequence to everyday Gilbert homeowners, it is the basis for Prime Rate, the interest rate on which most consumer cards are based, plus many business loans, too.

Therefore, because the Fed Funds Rate won’t change today, neither will credit card rates.  Mortgage rates, however, are a different story.  Mortgage rates should change today — regardless of what the Fed does.

It’s more about what the Fed says.

In its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight strengths and weaknesses in the economy, and threats to growth over the next few quarters. Depending on how Wall Street interprets these remarks, mortgage rates may rise or fall.

If the Fed’s comments signal better-than-expected growth, bond markets should lose and mortgage rates should rise. Conversely, if the Fed’s comments signal worse-than-expected growth, mortgage rates should fall.

If you’re actively shopping for a mortgage, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed’s announcement today. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.  Call your loan officer to lock your rate.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, “The Street Economist”

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Mortgage markets worsened last week, putting a pause on the mortgage rate rally that dates to mid-April. Mortgage rates rose across Arizona last week and home affordability suffered.

The Refi Boom remains in full effect, but rates are not as dazzling as they were a week ago.

It’s somewhat strange that mortgage rates rose last week given the heavy dose of negative-bending news.

• The Federal Reserve noted that the economy “has slowed“
• New unemployment claims rose to a 6-month high
• Retail sales — excluding auto sales — rose less than expected

Mortgage rates often to fall on such news, but last week, they rose. The biggest reason was weak demand on a new 30-year bond issuance from the government. In turn, that weakness spilled over into mortgage bonds, which pushed rates up.

This week, mortgage rates could rise or fall — it depends on how new data influences market sentiment.

• Monday :  Home builder confidence survey
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits; Producer Price Index
• Thursday : Jobless claims; 2 Fed members make speeches

Keep a close eye on the housing-related data early in the week. It’s widely believed that housing will lead the economy forward so a rebound in home builder confidence, or a jump in building permits, for example, should push rates even higher. Weakness

In the meanwhile, if you haven’t spoken with your loan officer about a refinance, consider reaching out this week. Rates are lower than they’ve ever been in history and more people are getting financing than the news would have you believe. You can’t know until you ask so make that call today.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, “The Street Economist”

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney

Today, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Today’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in Arizona are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

Thank you for reading and following.

Jeff Underwood, “The Street Economist”

Licensed Mortgage Professional And Personal Finance Expert

Also visit http://theuglytruthaboutmoney.com/ or TheUglyTruthAboutMoney